Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025: from the world of Ukrainian research a strategy for the future

Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 (Rome, 10-11 July 2025) and the future of Ukraine: interview with Valeriy Heyets, Director of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Table of Contents

Impact of War on Economic Research – Ukraine’s Economic Landscape and Priorities – International Support and Economic Resilience – Ukraine Recovery Conference – Social Quality in Post-War Recovery – Second UN World Social Summit – Future Projections: Ukraine and Europe

‘First of all, I would like to express my gratitude for your interest in the activities of our Institute,’ says Valeriy Heyets, Director of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting at the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine, who spoke via video link on 1 July at the international conference on Italy’s contribution to the UN World Social Summit in November, organised by CNR-DSU and Eurispes. But it is above all us who must thank him infinitely for responding, despite the emergency his tormented country is going through, with in-depth analyses to the questions for Agenda Domani in view of the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, which Italy will host in Rome on 10 and 11 July, taking the opportunity to share, as Prof. Heyets emphasises, ‘our scientific view of events in Ukraine and Europe in the context of the current military conflict. We would also like to express our heartfelt thanks to all Italians who are providing a wide range of support to Ukraine during this difficult period of war, and gratitude to the Italians for their help to Ukrainian refugees in Italy. This is of immense value to us and to Ukraine!’

Impact of War on Economic Research

Director Heyets, how has the war affected the research activities of the Institute for Economics and Forecasting?

The harsh war realities that began with the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022, have become a test for the entire Ukrainian society, including the sphere of science. They have also encompassed our Institute of Economics and Forecasting, which has been operating within the system of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine for over a quarter of a century – since 1997.

Despite the wartime hardships, we managed to preserve our main value – our scientific team, and today the Institute continues its work, continues to carry out its mission, which is to provide the Government of Ukraine with scientific and applied developments in the field of socio -economic development of the country, in particular, strategic forecasts and programs. In particular, on an ongoing basis, our Institute provides analytical data and macroeconomic forecast calculations for the periodic Consensus Forecast of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.

In addition, even before the war, as part of the decentralization reform, we began and today we are already working closely with local communities and domestic business structures that are interested in scientific support for infrastructure and other projects, or obtaining sectoral or macro -economic forecasts.

For example, our specialists have conducted thorough research on the development of the titanium and aluminum industries of Ukraine on an innovative basis. Another example is the active participation of the Institute’s scientists in the implementation of the project “Promoting the Capacity Building of Regional Authorities in Forming a Strategy for Post-War Reconstruction and Industrial Development (Case Study of Kyiv Region)”.

It is clear that the war had a corresponding impact on the subject of our research. And for the fourth year now, our Institute has been cooperating with various government structures in Ukraine, providing scientific analytics, forecasts, and assessments related to the economic and social resilience of our state, which, ultimately, is our institutional contribution to strengthening its economic, energy, food, social security, and defense capabilities. Thus, based on macroeconomic modelling, calculations were made and recommendations were developed for Government institutions regarding macroeconomic, industrial, investment, monetary, and fiscal policies, as well as employment policies under martial law.

Another important vector of our Institute’s current activities is scientific and applied research on the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, which will warm its economy and society as a whole. Today, there is a clear understanding that after the war we must not just restore the economy, but transform it into a resilient, innovative and pro-European integrated system that will be able to withstand modern hybrid threats, including military ones.

Actually, the scientific justification for such a post-war transformation is provided in the monographs published by the Institute (in Ukrainian): “Restoration and Reconstruction of the Post-War Economy of Ukraine” (2022), “Trajectories of development of the post-war economy of Ukraine in the coordinate system of the post-pandemic world” (2023), “Strategic Planning of Post-War Industrial Development: New Determinants and Imperatives” (2024).

The war conditions not only radically changed the socio-economic environment of Ukraine, but also initiated a profound transformation of the scientific and research discourse aimed at finding strategic solutions in response to the hybrid challenges of modernity. Academic institutions, in particular the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine, became not only witnesses, but also active participants in the formation of a new paradigm of economic sustainability and adaptive management.

The challenges of wartime have highlighted the need for a rapid rethinking of the functions of scientific analytics — from retrospective to proactive, from expert support to intellectual leadership in the reconstruction process. It is about the emergence of science as a system-forming resource that is capable not only of describing reality, but also of shaping a vision of the future.

Therefore, in conditions of deep crises, science turns out to be not a marginal but a strategic actor, whose ability for mobile adaptation, interdisciplinary integration, and constructive partnership provides the foundation for building an economy focused on innovation, sustainability, and human development.

Institutionalizing science as a driver of recovery requires a focused public policy focused on supporting research, preserving scientific schools, and integrating into the European research space. Only under such conditions will science be able to fully realize its transformative potential in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

In what ways has your institution adapted its focus to address the urgent challenges posed by the conflict?

As I have already noted, since the first months of the Russian invasion, our scientific team has been focusing its efforts on researching the most pressing issues of the impact of a full-scale war on the national economy and Ukrainian society. I will give you two relevant examples.

First: one of the extremely complex and urgent problems in the conditions of martial law is the problem of the markets of goods and services of Ukraine. On the one hand, serious problems related to climate, biodiversity, inequality, uncertainty are recognized at the global level. On the other hand, the global world, thanks to the ideologues of liberal trade policy, has proven that the market, in many of its components, does not always act as an effective tool. This leads to serious contradictions that cause trade wars. The Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine monitors these processes, the institution’s specialists regularly publish materials on the results of such observations, and this initiative should definitely be continued.

In conditions of uncertainty, exacerbated by the full-scale Russian invasion and transformations of US trade policy, the Institute’s scientific analysis and forecast of the functioning of Ukraine’s goods and services markets – both in wartime and during the period of post-war reconstruction – will contribute to the adoption of well-founded and balanced political and economic decisions at the level of state leadership.

The second example is the participation of our Institute in the implementation, together with two other scientific institutions of the National Academy of Sciences, of the targeted interdisciplinary project “Solidarization of Ukrainian Society in Wartime and Prospects for Preservation and Regeneration of Solidarity Social Potential in the Post-War Development of the Country”. This project is aimed at studying the phenomenon of solidarity of Ukrainians in one of the most critical moments of our history – the period of the Russian-Ukrainian War, as well as identifying potential lines of demarcation capable of breaking social unity and launching processes of social entropy in the country.

If in 2022–2023 solidarity was a source of social energy in Ukraine, then later its place was partially taken by frustration, distrust, and closedness. In 2024–2025, sociological studies recorded an increase in symptoms of social erosion: regional polarization, fatigue, and a sense of injustice in the distribution of resources. And therefore, today, scientists must develop ways, mechanisms, and the necessary contribution of all parties to the national social dialogue, as well as civil society, which are necessary to maintain the solidarity of Ukrainians and direct its resource potential to the post-war reconstruction of the country. And today, such developments are also in the scientific baggage of our Institute.

In parallel with the above-mentioned areas, the Institute has intensified scientific research in the field of analyzing the transformation of the institutional environment and the functioning of public administration in wartime. Changes in the management structure, new challenges in the field of public finances, the need for a prompt response to humanitarian and infrastructure crises — all this has become the objects of systemic analysis. Special attention is paid to the study of the effectiveness of anti-crisis mechanisms and decision-making procedures in situations of high uncertainty.

Another important direction has been the study of spatial development processes and demographic shifts caused by mass population migration, labor resource movements, and changes in the regional structure of the economy. Given the scale of internal and external migration, the Institute develops proposals for integration policies aimed at restoring regional potential, taking into account the principles of equal access to resources, social cohesion, and economic efficiency.

Thus, the Institute’s scientific activities in wartime conditions have not only adapted to the urgent demands of the time, but also continue to form a multidimensional picture of the deep socio-economic transformations taking place in the country. Thanks to a multidisciplinary approach and integration of knowledge from various fields, scientists offer comprehensive solutions aimed at strengthening the state’s resilience and restoring social capital.

Ukraine’s Economic Landscape and Priorities

How do you assess Ukraine’s current economic situation?

Of course, it is difficult, because a full-scale fiercewar takes human lives every day, including peaceful Ukrainian citizens; business, energy and transport infrastructure, housing, and the social sphere of Ukraine have suffered significant destruction and damage, material losses, and financial losses during the 3.5 years of war; the national labor market and labor potential of the country have been shocked by the fact that millions of Ukrainians have become asylum seekers abroad (in total, there are 5.6 million of them in the world today, according to UNHCR) or internally displaced persons (this official status was granted by the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy to 4.5 million of our citizens).

According to official data, approximately 20% of sovereign Ukrainian territories are currently occupied, and there is active fighting on the contact line, which removes a significant part of the economic potential, destroys regional economic ties, or makes business activity impossible as such. Despite this, the Ukrainian economy, with unprecedented support from international donors, investors, and creditors, remains resilient under martial law and has been demonstrating annual recovery growth since the year before last after a “collapse” of almost a third in the first year of the war. According to official data, Ukraine’s real GDP growth was 5.5% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, the growth of the Ukrainian economy was only 0.5% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, when the growth was 6.8%. There is an obvious trend of slowing economic growth, the main reason for which is the ongoing full-scale war, during which the aggressor is destroying the energy and transport infrastructure, production facilities, as well as human capital, including labor resources, of our country.

In this context, the issue of long-term economic resilience in the face of a protracted war and limited resources is of particular importance. The current situation demonstrates that even with external support and internal mobilization, the Ukrainian economy is facing the effect of “adaptation fatigue” — when existing stabilization tools lose their effectiveness due to structural constraints, particularly in the energy sector, logistics, and the labor market. This requires a rethinking of approaches to economic planning, in particular through the introduction of scenario modelling that takes into account both military risks and the potential for regional recovery.

In addition, there is a growing need to institutionalize mechanisms of social cohesion that go beyond traditional social policy. This involves the formation of new formats of interaction between the state, civil society and business, in particular through the development of local economies, support for cooperative models and inclusive infrastructure projects. In this regard, the role of communities as recovery actors, capable not only of implementing projects, but also of shaping a new quality of public administration at the local level, is important.

Finally, the current economic situation requires a rethinking of the model of interaction with international partners. Dependence on external funding must be transformed into a partnership based on a shared vision of recovery, transparency in the use of resources, and institutional accountability. This involves not only the effective use of the funds provided, but also the formation of internal mechanisms for monitoring, impact assessment, and strategic planning, which will allow Ukraine to move from survival mode to development mode.

What are the key priorities in wartime, and what measures should the government take to stabilize the economy while laying the groundwork for post-war reconstruction and development?

I would not be mistaken if, in addition to repelling the aggressor and upholding the state sovereignty of Ukraine, I call its main priorities in wartime ensuring macroeconomic resilience, as well as preventing social destabilization in society. Speaking about the strategic measures of the Ukrainian Government – namely, they lay the foundation for post-war reconstruction and development – I want to draw attention to several systemic issues.

First, one of the fundamental things for the development of post-conflict Ukraine is its post-war economic model. I would like to note that modern processes of digitalization and the introduction of new technologies are occurring at such a rapid pace that simply restoring what was before the war often makes no sense, so in fact, the post-war process in the economy of Ukraine would be more correct to call it not restoration, but the creation of a new model of the economy and development of production, which will meet the strategic goals of the country’s future . Including regarding accession to the European Union, which will require changes in the structure of Ukrainian production, as well as compliance with certain standards and criteria, which will be quite difficult to implement in the conditions of a destroyed economy. The Green Deal, which Ukraine announced even before the war, will also impose additional requirements.

Secondly, the problem is the extremely high import dependence and the destruction of our country’s export potential as a result of the war. Over the years, the Ukrainian economy has always been extremely open, and as a result, we are very dependent on foreign trade turnover (and there are many such countries in Europe). Obviously, Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU will not solve this problem, and in some issues it will even exacerbate it. How to overcome such dependence, how to carry out reconstructive reconstruction with the priority of expanding the national consumer market, while meeting the requirements of integration into the common economic space of Europe – this is an extremely difficult task that the Government will face.

Thirdly, the issue of ensuring the country’s macro-financial stability. It is quite obvious that the unprecedented support provided to Ukraine from the very beginning of the war by international partners cannot be endless. And therefore, over time, serious fiscal and budgetary risks will arise. For example, the expenditures of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine, planned for 2025, are only 57% provided by own revenues. And although it is clear that this is a wartime budget, with significant expenditures for defense and security purposes, in the post-war period, the problems of filling the budget and debt payments will be very difficult.

Fourth, the problem of overcoming the deficit of human capital and labor force in Ukraine, which is already an acute problem for Ukrainian business, will require a priority solution. The long-term national Employment Strategy, the draft of which is currently being developed with the participation of scientists from our Institute, will contribute to solving this problem.

In the current conditions of a protracted full-scale war, one of the key tasks of the Ukrainian state is to form a model of economic policy that will simultaneously ensure short-term stabilization and create the prerequisites for a deep socio-economic transformation. This requires a qualitative rethinking of the role of the state as a strategic coordinator of restoration, modernization, and the formation of a new social architecture.

One of the priorities of such an approach should be the institutional coordination of sectoral policies, budget planning and international technical assistance programs, which are implemented within the framework of the Ukraine Facility, the IMF Program and other intergovernmental agreements. The comprehensive integration of these instruments will contribute to the concentration of resources on strategic areas: the development of critical infrastructure, the digitalization of management, the strengthening of the defense-industrial potential and the support of human capital.

At the same time, reconstruction should be considered not as a technical reconstruction, but as a driver of a modernization breakthrough. Government policy should stimulate investments in high-tech industries, the restoration of export potential and the transformation of the country’s industrial profile in accordance with the requirements of European integration and the green transition. In this regard, the priority is to support small and medium-sized businesses as a source of inclusive growth, new jobs and space for innovative activity.

However, Ukraine’s post-war transformation must be based on the concept of social quality (SQ) as a framework approach to development management. This approach integrates economic, social and political dimensions and focuses on four key components: social cohesion, social inclusion, social security and empowerment. In practical terms, this means focusing not only on macroeconomic indicators, but also on creating conditions for a dignified, productive and secure life for every person.

The policy of social quality envisages new formats of interaction between the state, civil society and business, in particular – the development of participatory governance at the local level, cooperative economic models, inclusive infrastructure projects and programs for the reintegration of vulnerable groups. It is important that the relevant indicators are integrated into the system of strategic and program planning – both at the national and regional levels. This will ensure not only transparency and accountability of recovery, but also a qualitative reset of the social contract on the principles of dignity, solidarity and civic responsibility.

Thus, the reconstruction and development of Ukraine in the post-war period require a comprehensive strategic approach that combines macroeconomic stability, modernization impulses and social quality policies. Only with the synergy of these components will it be possible to form a sustainable, inclusive and people-centered development model that is capable not only of overcoming the consequences of the war, but also of ensuring a high-quality future for Ukraine as a European democratic state.

International Support and Economic Resilience

How critical are international partnerships and aid in strengthening Ukraine’s economic resilience?

This support in difficult wartime plays a colossal role, and its volume is also colossal even by historical standards. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, for the period between January 24, 2022 and April 30, 2025, total (humanitarian, financial and military) already allocated assistance to Ukraine from the participating countries and EU institutions amounted to 130.9 billion euros.

Along with the support of other international partners, this became the key to Ukraine’s resilience in the difficult armed confrontation with the aggressor. In particular, maintaining its macroeconomic and social stability in martial law, as evidenced by the International Monetary Fund on the basis of the quarterly review of Ukraine’s program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

It should also be noted that the EU Financial Assistance Program “Ukraine Facility” of EUR 50 billion for the period 2024–2027 plays a unique role in maintaining the stability of Ukraine’s economy and social sector, as its funding is clearly tied to Ukraine’s implementation of key economic and institutional reforms that are consistent with its European integration course.

In this context, the formation of the state’s institutional capacity to manage complex transformation processes is of particular importance. It is not only about the technical implementation of reforms, but also about creating a new quality of public administration based on transparency, accountability and trust. An important task is the development of strategic planning mechanisms that allow combining short-term anti-crisis measures with long-term sustainable development goals. In this aspect, the integration of the principles of social quality into the system of assessing the effectiveness of policies – both at the national and local levels – plays a key role.

In addition, social investments supported by international partners should be seen not as aid, but as a tool for building human potential and social cohesion. Programs for professional reintegration, inclusive education, support for vulnerable groups and local community development create the basis for a new model of social contract. It is important that these initiatives are not fragmented, but integrated into an overall recovery strategy, with clear impact indicators and public monitoring mechanisms.

Thus, the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine must rely on three interrelated pillars: economic modernization, institutional renewal, and social quality policies. Only with their synergy will it be possible not only to overcome the consequences of the war, but also to form a sustainable, inclusive, and people-centered development model that meets both the internal needs of society and European integration guidelines.

From your perspective, what concrete steps should the global community take to ensure effective support for Ukraine’s recovery?

Taking into account the relevant experience of other countries that have survived the hardships of war, such support will become more specific and detailed only with the post-war approval of the Ukraine Recovery Plan. That is, when the war ends and we fix the “initial conditions” –in people, territories, economic capacities and assets – for reconstruction. But the priority areas of support from the world community are clear now. These are investment, innovation and technology, as well as restructuring – regarding Ukraine’s state debt obligations.

Ukraine Recovery Conference (Rome, July 10–11, 2025)

The upcoming Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome aims to mobilize support for reconstruction. What outcomes are you hoping for—particularly in terms of financial commitments, rebuilding strategies, and international cooperation?

I would like to note that our government has conducted very serious preparations for the High-Level Conference on the Reconstruction of Ukraine (URC2025), which will be held in Rome on July 10-11, 2025, and has determined the desired outcomes of this event. In my opinion, they are balanced and harmonized with the relevant directions of the future Plan for the Reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the protracted military conflict. These are the following four directions:

(1) Mobilizing the private sector for reconstruction and economic growth. Importantly, URC2025 will seek to address private sector concerns, including those related to security, financing and insurance, overregulation, and the labor market.

(2) Social recovery and human capital for Ukraine’s future. The focus here is on mobilizing human capital, strengthening social cohesion and ensuring inclusiveness in Ukrainian society. Key challenges in this area include the reintegration of internally displaced persons, refugees and veterans into civilian life. Collaboration between stakeholders, civil society and the Ukrainian diaspora will be crucial.

(3) Rebuilding communities and regions, which play a paramount role in Ukraine’s reconstruction in light of the decentralization reform. The conference emphasizes the role of local governments and regional state administrations in reconstruction, ensuring access to financing, and developing capacities.

(4) EU accession and relatedreforms. Deepening European integration and the prospect of joining the single market will help align Ukraine’s policies and institutions with European standards and contribute to Ukraine’s post-war economic reconstruction and social progress.

Social Quality in Post-War Recovery

How can Ukraine embed the principles of social development quality — such as inclusion, economic security, social cohesion, and poverty eradication — into its post-war recovery strategy?

I would like to emphasize that in the conditions of the full-scale Russian invasion, the Ukrainian social space underwent a significant restructuring, which led to the formation of new structural and forming pillars of life: large-scale humanitarian assistance to impoverished segments of the population; changes in the balance of trust/distrust in individual social institutions; reassessment of values and the desire to start a “new life” with a new job. Taken together, they constitute the new fundamental forms of life of Ukrainian society and should be considered in the Post-War Recovery Plan of Ukraine.

Applying the social quality approach will allow balancing social needs, institutional responsibility, and opportunities for self-realization of Ukrainian citizens. It is seen that in the post-war Ukrainian context, such a balancing framework will allow:

• to combine physical reconstruction with human subjectivity, that is, with a focus on the rights, voice, needs, and perspective of the individual;
• integrate employment policy with active citizen participation in shaping labor decisions, regional development policies, and local strategies;
• to transform the social assistance system into a development system in which support serves as the basis for strengthening human, economic and civic capacity.

Thus, approaches to social quality can become the methodological basis of Ukraine’s post-war transformation, which will provide a deeper, structurally coherent, dignity-oriented model of social development.

At the same time, the normative and political impetus provided by European integration as a framework for aligning standards is very important for our country. The expected opening of negotiation clusters between Ukraine and the European Union creates an institutional opportunity to formalize the SQ principles in documents assessing integration progress. Given that the policies of solidarity, participation, inclusion and social justice constitute the core of the European social model, their combination with the Ukrainian experience can form a synergistic framework – national-European in content and means.

In this context, it is important that the principles of social quality are not only declaratively recorded in strategic documents, but also institutionally embedded in the mechanisms of planning, implementing and monitoring recovery policies. This involves the development of a system of social quality indicators adapted to Ukrainian realities, which will allow assessing not only economic results, but also the level of social cohesion, access to services, citizen participation in decision-making and the dynamics of overcoming poverty. Such a system can become the basis for the formation of a new model for assessing the effectiveness of policies – both at the national and regional levels.

In addition, the implementation of the principles of social quality requires the development of horizontal partnerships between the state, communities, civil society and business. It is through such partnerships that it is possible to ensure the sustainability of social investments, the inclusiveness of recovery processes and increased trust in institutions. In this regard, support for local initiatives that combine physical reconstruction with the development of human potential -– for example, through the creation of social cohesion centers, inclusive educational spaces, mental health programs and social entrepreneurship – is of particular importance.

Finally, the integration of social quality into Ukraine’s post-war strategy should be seen as a tool for forming a new social contract based on dignity, solidarity, participation and responsibility. Such a contract will not only overcome the consequences of the war, but also lay the foundation for sustainable, inclusive and people-centered development that will meet both the internal expectations of Ukrainian society and European value orientations. In this sense, social quality appears not as an abstract category, but as a practical guide for building a new Ukraine.

Are there models from other nations that could inspire Ukraine’s approach?

Today, we are unlikely to find a country that has fully ensured its social development on the basis of social quality. Especially considering the impact of such factors as the “cost of living crisis”, demographic challenges, migration policy problems, and the deepening and expansion of multidimensional inequality, in particular due to digital and security inequality.

But many countries in Europe have managed to implement social quality approaches in key areas of their socio -economic development, which is manifested in such indicators as a high average per capita level of well-being, a decent level of pension provision and social payments to vulnerable categories of citizens, a low unemployment rate, an environmentally safe living environment, etc. In this sense, among post-socialist states (i.e., among states with a similar path dependence to Ukraine) can be considered a reference point for the Czech Republic. Incorporating their most effective approaches based on SQ into Ukrainian strategies and practices of post-war development of the national social space can be quite useful for Ukraine.

In the context of implementing social quality principles in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, the Italian experience can serve as a valuable source of inspiration, demonstrating the resilience of social institutions even in the face of economic turbulence. Despite structural challenges, Italy has managed to maintain a high level of access to basic social services, particularly in the areas of health, education and social security. The national health system (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale) ensures universal access to medical services, and social transfers – including a basic income for citizens (Reddito di cittadinanza) – are aimed at reducing poverty and supporting social inclusion.

The model of decentralized social management deserves special attention , which allows Italian regions to adapt social policies to local needs, while maintaining national standards. This approach contributes to increasing the efficiency of social investments, developing partnerships between municipalities, public organizations and business. For Ukraine, which already has experience in decentralization, this can become the basis for the formation of local systems of social quality, focused on the needs of communities and capable of ensuring the sustainability of social development in conditions of limited resources.

In addition, Italy is actively implementing indicative frameworks for assessing social well-being, in particular through the BES (Benessere Equo e Sostenibile) system, which combines economic, social and environmental indicators. This approach allows the government to formulate policies based on a multidimensional analysis of the quality of life, and not only GDP. For Ukraine, this opens up the opportunity to develop its own social quality monitoring system, which will become a tool for strategic management of recovery and European integration processes.

Second World Summit for Social Development (Doha, November 4–6, 2025)

What are your expectations for the UN World Social Summit in Qatar?

The holding of the World Social Summit under the auspices of the UN in November 2025 clearly indicates the global level of actualization of social and societal problems. The proposed agenda of this Summit is based on the priority of a comprehensive strategy and practice of human-centeredness for modern societies; on the goals of building more resilient, inclusive and sustainable societies; on providing new impetus for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

But it is also important to take into account the pressing problems, the solutions of which will be discussed on the sidelines of the World Social Summit by its participants. I would like to focus on just one such issue, insofar as it has strategic importance for future societal development and directly relates to the processes of reconstruction of Ukraine in the post-war period.

This issue points to the need to introduce new social policy approaches that are adequate to the needs and demands of modern societies. In particular, such approaches that could potentially best respond to the post-war renewal of the social contract in countries currently engulfed in full-scale armed conflicts, such as Ukraine.

And it is my scientific belief that one of such new approaches can be the SQ approach. Moreover, based on the results of relevant research by our Institute, we consider the social quality approach as a prospect for the post-war recovery and European integration of Ukraine, clearly understanding the relevance of this approach and the risks that may arise on the way to its implementation. These are the issues that my address (speech) to the participants of the International Scientific Conference “Verso il Vertice Sociale Mondiale dell`ONU (Qatar – 4-6 Novembre2025): Il Contributo Dell’Italia“, which took place on July 1, 2025 in Rome, and was organized by EURISPES and the Department of Social Science of the National Research Council of Italy.

How can Ukraine both contribute to and benefit from this global dialogue on equitable development?

Ukraine today is not only in the phase of post-war reconstruction, but also in a historical moment of rethinking the model of social development. The war exposed structural vulnerabilities – but at the same time actualized values that had previously remained in the shadows: dignity, solidarity, participation, justice, shared responsibility. These are the concepts that are at the center of approaches to social quality.

The implementation of SQ approaches will certainly contribute to the post-war formation of a new social contract in Ukraine, where the state, community, and individual act as partners in the production of the future.

In this context, Ukraine has a chance to lay the foundation for recovery not only as a physical reconstruction, but as a humanistic project, and thus contribute to this global dialogue on equitable development.

Future Projections: Ukraine and Europe

What are your Institute’s key forecasts for Ukraine’s economy in the coming years?

As I noted earlier, the growth rate of the Ukrainian economy continues to slow down, which is primarily due to the full-scale war. According to our Institute, the dynamics of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025 will be 1.9% (respectively, 2.7% according to the Government’s forecast), that is, the economy will continue to slow down. At the same time, in the post-war period, which according to current IMF assumptions may begin in early-mid 2026, a gradual recovery of the Ukrainian economy is forecast in the medium term. According to the Institute’s estimates, GDP growth is expected in 2026 – by 3.1%, in 2027 – by 4.0%, and in 2028 – by 4.1%. The updated forecasts take into account the positive impact on the economy from good harvests, a reduction in the electricity deficit, and an increase in defense orders. International assistance will continue to play a significant role in supporting the country’s recovery.

Returning to the issue of Ukraine’s macroeconomic recovery, it should be noted that one of the key factors inhibiting it is the high unemployment rate, which currently stands at about 17% according to various estimates based on the ILO methodology. This indicator is a direct consequence of the war, as well as an obstacle to sustainable economic development, since unemployment is structural in nature, and many qualified workers left the country, fleeing the war. The lack of highly qualified specialists is becoming a tangible problem for the labor market, as emphasized not only by scientists, but also by many domestic business associations.

Recent data from the Scientific Platform under the Ministry of Economy show that by 2030, Ukraine’s demand for labor will grow by 10%, while the supply will grow by only 7%. This will lead to a shortage of personnel, especially in agriculture and industry, where the demand will exceed the number of applicants by 30–40%. Therefore, the task of orienting Ukraine’s state policy towards reducing imbalances in the national labor market becomes especially urgent.

On a broader scale, how do you envision the future of Ukraine and Europe?

In my opinion, only the common future of Ukraine and Europe is the key to their stability and security in today’s turbulent world.

On a broader scale, the future of Ukraine and Europe increasingly appears as an interdependent, mutually reinforcing process, in which the security, development and values of both sides form a single strategic framework. The full-scale war unleashed by Russia has not only changed the geopolitical configuration of the continent, but also actualized the need to rethink the very essence of the European project – as a space not only of economic integration, but also of civilizational solidarity. In this sense, Ukraine is no longer just a candidate for EU accession, but acts as a co-creator of a new Europe, which is being tested for its stability, dignity and capacity for renewal.

Ukraine’s future in Europe must be based on the integration not only of institutions but also of values, in particular through the implementation of a policy of social quality as a common methodological framework. This means that the reconstruction of Ukraine must become not only a physical process, but also a model of social renewal, focused on inclusion, cohesion, economic security and dignity. In this context, Ukraine can offer Europe a unique experience – how the values of freedom, democracy and solidarity can be realized in conditions of existential threat, and not only in peaceful prosperity.

Thus, the common future of Ukraine and Europe is not only political integration, but also a common response to the challenges of the 21st century: hybrid threats, climate change, demographic transformations, a crisis of trust in institutions. Ukraine, having gone through a deep transformation, can become a catalyst for the renewal of the European project – not as a periphery, but as its moral and strategic center. This is not only a chance for Ukraine, but also a historic chance for Europe – to find itself through solidarity with those who fight for freedom.

What sources of hope do you see amid today’s challenges?

Such sources of hope in the turbulent ocean of global challenges are seen in the preservation of human values of freedom, mutual support, solidarity, wisdom, as well as the belief that future generations should live in a safer and more just world.

In today’s world, marked by wars, climate catastrophes, technological shifts, and a crisis of trust in institutions, sources of hope take on special importance as moral and existential landmarks. One such source is the indomitable human capacity for solidarity – both in daily interactions and in global displays of support. The example of Ukraine, which received unprecedented international assistance in response to aggression, demonstrates that even in a world dominated by interests, the values of freedom, dignity, and mutual responsibility remain alive.

Another source of hope is the human capacity for recovery and creation, manifested in the ability to dream, plan and act even in the most difficult circumstances. As research shows, dreams and imagination are not an escape from reality, but a psychological resource that helps to shape a vision of the future, mobilize internal forces and maintain the integrity of the individual. In this sense, the dream of a just, safe and inclusive society is not a utopia, but a strategic vision that can unite people and inspire action.

Finally, hope is rooted in the ability of societies to unite and self-organize. Surveys show that Ukrainians draw optimism from the unity of the nation, the support of allies, and the resilience of the Armed Forces. This demonstrates that even in times of destruction, social capital, trust, and mutual support can be the foundation for recovery. More broadly, this means that hope is not an abstract feeling but a social energy that can change the course of history.